Author: Dr. Banafsheh Keynouch

At the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 28), held in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in November-December 2023, state parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) addressed pressing climate adaptation goals. The UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience (UAEFGCR) introduced seven important thematic areas for adaptation, i.e. water, food and agriculture, health, ecosystems and biodiversity, poverty and livelihoods, infrastructure, and cultural heritage. COP 29 and COP 30, held respectively in 2024 and 2025 in Azerbaijan and Brazil, emphasized bridging the adaptation finance gap by reaching the goal of mobilizing at least USD 300 billion in developed countries by 2035, and reaching a broader collective effort of USD 1.3 trillion.

The relevance of these broad thematic topics varies across different regions of the world. In the Arab Gulf region, climate adaptability prioritizes preserving fragile coastlines against sea level rise, managing scarce water resources, reducing fossil fuel emissions, building infrastructures to enhance adaptive capacities, and introducing gender-related and socially-conscious programs.

Furthermore, effective adaptability in the Gulf region requires working with multiple stakeholders across sectors and countries. The region’s adaptability goals were previously highlighted in broader climate debates at the Paris Agreement of 2015 and the adoption of its Rulebook at the Glasgow COP 26 in 2021. This encouraged Gulf countries to reach net zero emission (NZE) by building adaptive capacities and climate resilience. COP 28 stressed new visions for adaptability, through mid to long-term planning, to ensure the well-being of the Gulf people and economies while aiming to protect the natural environment.

In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, national climate strategies led to rapid institutional changes to commit to a greener climate, and the launch of new initiatives and regulations to meet net zero emissions, by focusing on implementing Article 6 carbon market rules to support resilience with a focus on technology, finance, and nature-based solutions (NbS).

The present report will focus on actions taken in the GCC states to better adapt to climate change including through a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) as well as other measures to address the impact and vulnerabilities of climate challenges and adaptations, assess risks, implement action programs, and monitor, evaluate and learn (MEL). These actions remain compliant with COP 29 New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) of generating climate finance, and COP 30 Belem Adaptation Indicators to track progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA).

Overview of Climate Adaptation Implementation in GCC States

The Paris Agreement and the Rulebook at the Glasgow COP 26 require Gulf countries to address the issue of emissions while dealing with freshwater scarcity and future erratic weather patterns. These challenges make climate adaptation policies critical to meeting national and regional development goals in the GCC, where desertification along with hydrocarbon production requires states to address the issue of emissions. The GCC has the highest carbon dioxide emission rates in the world, and following the review of international frameworks for action, the available domestic and regional policies and measures to adapt to climate offers it an endless list of tasks. To streamline these tasks, GCC states constantly analyze national conditions and capabilities for climate adaptation purposes. But their net zero emission target remains a distant one because of the region’s dependency on oil and gas production, and the need for time to build innovative solutions to sustain economic and development goals.

The Belem Adaptation Indicators of COP 30 offered new voluntary benchmarks to frame progress on climate adaptation. In preparation for COP 30, Bahrain which remains highly dependent on GCC oil markets and revenues, joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance to signal its transition toward cleaner energy, and to emphasize its commitment to the GCC climate bloc focus on maintaining energy security, while reducing methane and capturing carbon. Bahrain’s 2030 Sustainable Development Goals make climate a priority for government programs in order to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.

Due to energy dependency on the GCC and its status as a modest energy producer, Oman engages in dialogs on regional outcomes of COP 29 and COP 30 goals of strengthening National Adaptation Plans for fossil fuel transition, while accelerating adaptation in energy and tourism sectors. Oman introduced a 2019 National Strategy for Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change for 2020-2024. In addition, the country is introducing a wide range of energy transition activities, to initiate rapid response and resilience to climate shocks.

Kuwait’s 2019 National Adaptation Plan sets emission goals for 2030, but the country faces pressure to better adapt to emerging energy transition strategies in the GCC following COP 29 and COP 30. The Kuwaiti plan focuses on improving coastal climate and water resource management as key adaptation goals.

In 2021, Qatar introduced a National Climate Change Plan, followed by the creation of the Environment and Climate Change Ministry. Its support for national adaptation planning of 2022-2024 involves mitigating adverse climate impact in the areas of water management, infrastructure, and food security, and raising public awareness to identify climate adaptation priorities in the longer haul. Qatar is keen to support adaptation in other developing countries, by promoting low-carbon power technologies. Additionally, in 2019, it commissioned a large carbon storage plant to capture five million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year from Qatar’s liquified natural gas (LNG) industry by 2025. To comply with COP 29 and COP 30 directives, the Qatar Central Bank’s sustainability reporting advances new frameworks for emissions-financed systems starting in January 2026.

Saudi Arabia’s climate mitigation programs under the Saudi Green Initiative involve a circular carbon economy (CCE). Adopted by the GCC as a bloc, the approach involves the “four Rs” rule, of reducing, reusing, and recycling carbon, as well as removing excess carbon which is achieved through carbon capturing, utilization and storage (CCUS). Saudi Arabia’s outlined plan to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions also includes the removal of 278 million tons of CO2eq (carbon dioxide equivalent) annually by 2030 and net zero goal of 2026. This involves various greenhouse gases and their conversion to the equivalent amount of CO2 with the same global warming potential (GWP). But the country has called for a pragmatic approach toward adaptation, suited to its unique fossil fuel-rich environment. Meanwhile, its circular carbon economy approach involves at least 77 initiatives and $186 billion for implementation.

The UAE was the first GCC state to launch a national climate strategy in 2017, and it submitted a 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) with a fixed greenhouse gas emissions target. The Climate Change Plan of the UAE 2017-2050, embodied in the COP 28 climate adaptation goals, includes managing GHG, adapting to climate change, and building innovative solutions while sustaining economic and development goals. The National Adaptation Plan Roadmap for the United Arab Emirates launched in November 2023 is the latest action item to commit the country to adaptation processes by working with stakeholders, addressing risks, enhancing sector capacities, managing data, and developing gender-responsive and socially-inclusive NAP agendas. Programs include critical areas such as wetland and coastline management, temperature rise adaptation, and effective climate governance.

The UAE Green Agenda 2015-2030 and Council on Climate Change and Environment set up in 2016 oversee the implementation of some of these adaptation agendas. The Emirates National Bank of Dubai Financed Emissions Basis of Reporting 2024 is a useful GCC benchmark to build financed-emissions systems. The bank’s agenda specifically aims to build resilience to adapt to climate change through national, regional and global partnerships, manage GHGs, and promote private sector climate and economic diversification programs. The UAE nationally strengthened contribution to UNFCCC in 2023 is another step forward to balance fossil fuel production with achievable climate targets.

GCC Climate Adaptable Energy Transition Plans

At COP 28, carbon market regulating was expected to entail addressing means to balance fossil fuel production. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) report Oil and Gas Industry Net Zero Transitions, the oil and gas industry is involved in 90% carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) capacity in operation which is key to achieving net zero emissions. The IEA’s report shows opportunities that will emerge due to international efforts to promote climate adaptability, despite expected peaks for oil and gas by 2030. 

This means that the energy industry will have many opportunities to adapt as new markets, technologies and industries for cleaner energy transitions emerge. The GCC states will therefore continue to follow nationally determined contributions to UNFCCC goals through Climate Action Tracker, while insisting on fossil fuel to fund sustainable economic models that boost climate action and scientific analyses to reinforce those actions.

To promote Circular Carbon Economy goals to manage their emissions, GCC states are also developing roadmaps to acquire required technologies, build business standards and policies, implement scale-up technologies, support climate adaptability for domestic industries, promote international collaboration, and engage with multiple stakeholders. These steps help meet the challenge of carbon markets trade through carbon credits, representing CO2 that has been removed or prevented from being emitted into the atmosphere. They offer a range of options to encourage adaptation goals through more forestation and vegetation programs, and business investment in carbon credit trade, to meet baselines in terms of human and environmental health.

While large oil and gas companies own less than 13% of global oil and gas production and reserves, national oil companies in the GCC own more than half of production and 60% of reserves. This means that net zero transitions in the GCC region require accelerated clean energy technologies, and a decline by around 2% annually in oil and gas demand leading to 2050. New resource development in the sector should therefore ideally be matched by production reductions in other existing oil and gas reserves to reduce climate risks, without compromising essential investments in fossil fuel in order to secure the longer-term goals of affordable energy transitions.

Consequently, COP 28 urges governments to phase out fossil fuels, which involves shifting investments away from these fuels and toward clean energy to cut GHG emissions by half by 2030, and achieve net-zero goals for the global energy system by 2050. According to the World Energy Outlook 2023, published by the IEA, structural shifts in economies and in energy will shift the way the world meets future demand for energy. The GCC states have meanwhile set ambitious renewable energy targets, including the installation of solar energy, and the use of technologies to boost hydrogen and nuclear energy production levels. This will help lower demand for fossil fuels by 2050, although oil and gas will provide more than half of global energy supply.

The Climate High-Level Champions of the COP 29 and COP 30 Presidencies advanced Article 6 cooperation goals of authorized mitigation as outlined by the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, they developed a new five-year vision and plan for climate action, to accelerate implementation. COP 30 encouraged coordination around 30 key climate objectives, measures to report achievements through an Initiative-level indicators section, showcasing inspiring solutions, and scaling initiatives to develop concrete plans with responsible partners by 2028. This will lead to a checklist for GCC portfolios to meet, and it will impact financial instruments, build consistency in climate financial approaches, and fill date gaps.

Accordingly, for example, Saudi Arabia continues to announce large programs for renewables investments and build-up that will impact grid-emissions, with sustainability reporting expectations that are not necessarily mandatory but apply for every company to adhere to the emerging climate-friendly ecosystem. The UAE remains at the forefront of building “evidence packed” decarbonization programs, enabling the GCC countries to move in the direction of establishing more cohesive audit guidelines faster.

Path Forward

In the GCC, experts agree that investing in fossil fuel energy supplies especially in sectors in which emissions are harder to mitigate will be necessary moving forward. At the same time, the region could explore ways to mitigate high intensity emission, which can be five-to-ten times above lowest levels of mitigation, thereby revealing a potential to improve the oil and gas industry.

Moving forward, to better adapt hydrocarbon economies to climate change, some feasible options for the GCC include going over and above carbon capturing, a specialized operation requiring more electricity to power the technology that the world currently demands, toward building stronger clean energy economies. This requires encouraging private sector roles, which remains less than 13% of global oil and gas production, in promoting alternatively greener technologies. This in turn will help better align the world with the wider industry goal of reducing fossil fuel emissions by 60% by 2030.

Other strategies would involve reducing emissions from methane, which is half of the total emissions from oil and gas. These strategies are deemed to be low cost, enabling smaller oil and gas companies to better meet adaptation goals. Other scale up technologies could also be used to introduce decarbonized energy systems, some 30% of the expected energy consumption in 2050, through more skilled resourcing and use of hydrogen, carbon capture, offshore wind energy and liquid biofuels, while expanding the geothermal technologies that currently constitute only a fraction of projects and yet offer immense NZE opportunities. This can be achieved simultaneously with reducing high emissions due to the chemical recycling of plastic involved in the fossil fuel sector, and increasing electrical vehicle (EV) charging operation mindful that the sector is responsible for 15% of global EV investments.

According to the IEA, the oil and gas industry can take steps to minimize non-emergency flaring, use low-emission electricity to electrify upstream facilities, and advance CCUS. Other measures to reinforce climate adaptability involve partnering with low-emissions hydrogen projects and promoting hydrogen-based fuels, to reach the NZE scenario of low-emission hydrogen use by 2030, and promoting bio-energy (renewable energy produced by living organisms) which attracted more than half of total clean energy spending by the industry in 2020. Finally, LNG trade should meet increased demand by using plants already in operation, while the refining sector could reduce output for products such as gasoline and diesel in favor of increasing petrochemical feedstocks and products such as asphalt and bitumen.

The climate championship component of the above-mentioned initiatives is potentially huge, although it may come at a risk of ignoring local fossil fuel natural resources. But by aiming to keep abreast with international market innovations in the green energy sector, the GCC plans to remain a key player in global energy markets. Not surprisingly, the region’s green goals will place GCC member states into a better position to adapt to energy and climate forecasts. This suggests the importance of fossil fuels to achieve GCC economic sustainability while rapidly diversifying toward non-fossil fuel economies.

National companies are at the forefront of promoting climate championship as they seek to clarify their intended roles in net zero transitions. To this end, GCC companies could align existing potentials and capital with new energy transition goals to expand the dialog on the topic. Yet, across the Gulf region, net zero emission goals or even low-emission development strategies (LEDS) remain distant.

But a cluster of other climate adaptation strategies is available to the GCC states. The strategies, which are also technically feasible, include coastal defense buildup to protect against rapid climate fluctuations. Meanwhile, subsidy plans for fossil fuel projects could better ensure the carbon market is regulated to support climate action and offer remedies for the potential harm of pursing environmentally unfriendly practices.

As future insights for energy transitions emerge to offer flexible planning, this uncertain journey offers a large potential for climate adaptation in the GCC states. These include long-term economic planning, goal-oriented development strategies, economic diversification, sustainable use of natural resources, and knowledge building in the green sector. Region-wide collaboration in the GCC states promises to boost information sharing in the above areas, as well as technical research and standardization programs.

The more cooperative the GCC states become in terms of their future energy supplies, and the better integrated their socioeconomic drivers, the better they can meet climate adaptation goals. For example, more sustainable agriculture across the Gulf region, and the protection of water production cycles, along with the buildup of human security and education in green economy growth are key to the success of long-term climate adaptability programs. Finally, natural resource management and a diversified economy that is less dependent on fossil fuel production cycles can help boost national resilience programs when it comes to handling climate change.

Saudi Arabia’s Green Middle East Initiative is one example for regional development that also pushes “green recovery” by working with regional and multilateral environmental initiatives. The GCC itself as a collective body is also embarking on the delivery of green aid, rather than only humanitarian aid, to advance climate adaptability globally. Furthermore, as a host of organizations are actively participating in sustainable development goals, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, ongoing GCC support for Climate Change Action Plan 2020-2025 enables member states to promote green credentials as part of their diversification programs for climate adaptability.

The World Energy Council 2022 Annual Report makes energy transition the center of its accountability by rebuilding energy systems which include flexible storage capacities, to meet climate security challenges. Just energy transition involves city-scale clean ecosystems and a host of startups can engage in this market, promising innovation and humanizing energy through multiple channels of communication with strategic stakeholders and decisionmaker. Future world energy scenarios will thus evolve better and greener.

To this end, the GCC financed emissions programs will standardize metrics and expand methodologies for sustainability disclosure, to encourage institutions to publish and explain perimeters to better adhere to carbon accounting, for example, through the Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials (PCAF). Additionally, the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) introduced amendments in December 2025, for reporting periods starting in January 2027, to push for better transparency.

Conclusion

According to the United Nations, humanity will not survive unless it makes climate adaptation a key priority. But finalizing a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation was even a challenge

at COP 28, especially in terms of strengthening climate resilience according to the requirements of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Meanwhile, aligning government goals to accelerate action remains a challenge if the developing world is unable to make rapid shifts in policy. The GCC however is an exceptional case, because its financial resources are required for sustainable climate finance flows that can help the region adapt quicker to climate challenges, while also helping low-income economies for example in other continents such as Africa adapt faster in terms of global stocktake (GST) or an assessment of where the continent is in delivering the goals of the Paris Agreement. As climate adaptation funding fell by nearly 15% to US$24.6 billion in 2021 compared to the previous year worldwide, and pledges to deliver US$100 billion for adaptation in a decade are still being met, the GCC will thus remain at the forefront of new adaptation and financing initiatives.

Climate adaptation however remains a secondary goal to larger climate goals such as phasing out greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuels, although they in turn reinforce adaptation policies. The GCC is therefore rapidly advancing a clear vision on the issues to help meet UN projections that the developing countries alone will need US$400 billion per year to adapt to climate change, with an additional US$194-US$366 billion needed with each passing year.

Future GCC climate adaptability investments could secure the stability of this region’s environment, mindful that its members states have better prospects for climate adaptation than many poorer nations. The Gulf states ly have their share of vulnerability to climate change, and the region will be hard hit by its impact in the form of multi-year droughts and other forms of extreme weather patterns. However, COP 28 launched initiatives to cut GHG emissions, placing the UAE and other neighboring GCC states in a new position to mitigate climate-related crises. The UAE’s championship against climate change came to forth at COP 28. The International Climate Change Conference moving forward will align national goals with sustainable development goals (SDG), and encourage energy diversification and socio- economic programs and research and development projects to boost climate adaptability.

Low coastlines across the GCC, saltwater intrusions, and water contamination, as well as groundbreaking high temperatures mean the region’s adaptation policies will see an upward trajectory. But adaptation is insufficient to address these challenges. Cross-collaboration, and bridging resources are essential, fully mindful of the challenges involved in implementing unified policies across the region.

To this end, the new UAE FGCR frames the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change’s global stock take. In 2026, countries will have to generate needed adaptation evidence to enable the next comprehensive assessment of the Paris Agreement. The GCC states will be among many other countries to specify measurable, achievable, relevant and time-bound (SMART) indicators to drive MEL for adaptation by this time, to ensure the rapid progress of the UAE FGCR. While specific reporting may not be necessary, the GCC will need to reflect on strategies for adaptation goals and tap into resources to implement new ideas, building on the March 2024 UAE- Belém work program on adaptation indicators to collect some input toward reaching these goals, as well as talks at the Bonn Climate Change Conference in June 2024 and COP 29 in Azerbaijan in November 2024.

Finally, the most recent COP outcomes mean GCC businesses will walk away with practical transition plans supported by emissions data that COP 31 in Turkey will push faster for to demand greater accountability in delivery of services and in procurements that must increasingly meet pre-qualified criteria and ongoing audits over companies and the public sector.